Buff City Sets

Offseason note: Added Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Dorian Finney-Smith; moved on from Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Cam Whitmore.
Why here: Star shot-making meets grown-up depth. KD + FVV + Sengün with real 3-and-D around them changes the ceiling overnight.
One indicator to watch: 3PA volume and rim pressure coexisting.
The worry: Late-game offense getting KD-centric and predictable; health.
What moves them: Up if role wings keep hitting and the defense stays foul-clean; down if the half-court stalls into hero ball.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Ran it back; only rookies (Thomas Sorber, Brooks Barnhizer) and long-term extensions for SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet.
Why here: Defending champs with every rotation piece back. Identity and chemistry are already championship-grade.
One indicator to watch: Turnovers while playing fast.
The worry: Defensive rebounding vs. bruising frontcourts.
What moves them: Up if bench minutes keep winning; down if second-chance points pile up.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Swapped Isaac Okoro → Lonzo Ball; added Larry Nance Jr.; Darius Garland toe surgery to monitor.
Why here: Defense travels, guards still create, and Lonzo’s table-setting could clean up shot quality.
One indicator to watch: Opponent rim frequency + Cavs’ catch-and-shoot 3PA.
The worry: Health (Garland/Lonzo) and shot droughts in slower series.
What moves them: Up if the ball pops and corners stay open; down if injuries force musical chairs.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: High

Offseason note: New coach/front office; MPJ → Cam Johnson trade; brought back Bruce Brown, added Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valančiūnas.
Why here: Jokic plus fresh two-way wings and a legit backup 5 addresses last year’s issues.
One indicator to watch: Bench net rating without Jokic.
The worry: Transition to new voices/scheme early.
What moves them: Up if non-Jokic minutes are neutral or better; down if spacing/d stops wobble.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Hired Mike Brown; added Jordan Clarkson, Guerschon Yabusele; core intact.
Why here: Toughness, offensive boards, guard creation—and now a deeper bench. “Over the hump” energy.
One indicator to watch: FT rate + extra-possession edge.
The worry: Half-court ceiling vs. switchy defenses.
What moves them: Up if a third creator sticks; down if jumper variance bites late.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Added Bradley Beal, John Collins, Brook Lopez, Chris Paul; re-upped Harden; traded Norman Powell.
Why here: Healthy, this starting five is balanced and nasty—shooting, size, and playmaking.
One indicator to watch: Corner-3 attempt rate from role guys.
The worry: Age/availability management.
What moves them: Up if Lopez/Collins anchor the paint and Beal fits the spacing; down if injuries stack.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Traded for Desmond Bane; signed Tyus Jones; moved Cole Anthony, KCP.
Why here: Real shooting next to Paolo/Franz plus a steady guard—clean East-contender build.
One indicator to watch: Team 3PA volume without losing rim touches.
The worry: Half-court creation if Bane misses time.
What moves them: Up if two wings hit league-average from deep; down if spacing clogs late.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Added Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart; shuffled fringe pieces.
Why here: Two-star engine, better rim protection/physicality, and a backcourt adult.
One indicator to watch: Transition points off Smart-sparked stops.
The worry: Star health and streaky shooting around them.
What moves them: Up if Ayton locks in and shooters stay loud; down if spacing collapses in fourth quarters.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Ran it back; NAW departed; more runway for Dillingham/Shannon Jr.
Why here: Best defensive spine in the West; trusting internal growth.
One indicator to watch: Opponent rim FG% + team foul rate.
The worry: Half-court creation vs. elite switches.
What moves them: Up if a guard reliably beats the switch; down if fouls/TOs fuel runs.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Added Kristaps Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard; lost Capela, LeVert, Mann, Niang.
Why here: Best roster balance Trae has had since ’21—rim protection + spacing + a versatile wing.
One indicator to watch: Assist-to-turnover at pace.
The worry: Backline chemistry early without Capela.
What moves them: Up if KP’s health holds and Kennard guns; down if defense slips below average.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Simons, Niang in; Jrue Holiday, Porziņģis out; Tatum Achilles (season).
Why here: Spacing/switching still travel, but the star absence and cost-cutting reset the ceiling.
One indicator to watch: 3PA rate while keeping paint touches.
The worry: Cold-shooting stretches in tight games.
What moves them: Up if Simons pops and the defense holds; down if the offense gets one-note.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Thin roster now; vets like Horford & GPII expected to sign. So much drama with Kuminga?!?!?
Why here: IQ/movement can still bend coverages; betting on one more veteran push.
One indicator to watch: Bench net rating in non-Steph minutes.
The worry: Age on defense and the glass.
What moves them: Up if a young wing pops + vets arrive; down if rebounding bleeds points.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Added D’Angelo Russell; Kyrie out a stretch; No.1 pick Cooper Flagg joins; deep frontcourt.
Why here: Elite on-ball creation + size; ball-handling depth is the early question.
One indicator to watch: Defensive rebound rate.
The worry: Live-ball turnovers into runouts.
What moves them: Up if DLo/Flagg steady guard minutes; down if pressure coughs up the ball.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Added Kelly Olynyk, Luke Kornet, Lindy Waters III; No.2 pick Dylan Harper; Wemby healthy.
Why here: Huge defensive ceiling and more playmaking on deck; optimism is real.
One indicator to watch: FT rate/easy points for the young core.
The worry: Turnovers from inexperience late.
What moves them: Up if shooters keep defenses honest; down if close-game execution frays.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Waived/stretch Damian Lillard to sign Myles Turner; added Cole Anthony, Gary Harris; Lopez out.
Why here: Star power remains elite; reshaped center slot changes the math around Giannis.
One indicator to watch: Opponent rim attempts allowed.
The worry: Transition defense + depth/age.
What moves them: Up if the new rim protection holds; down if spacing/health wobble.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ty Jerome; moved Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard; new coach Tuomas Iisalo.
Why here: Healthy guards bend defenses; frontcourt can switch or protect. Chip-on-shoulder vibes.
One indicator to watch: Turnovers + defensive rebounding in small lineups.
The worry: Empty trips (TOs/FT droughts) feeding opponent runs.
What moves them: Up if non-star minutes stabilize and late-game execution tightens; down if fouls/TOs stack on the road.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Added Jay Huff; lost Myles Turner; Tyrese Haliburton out with Achilles for the season.
Why here: Can still score, but the rim/defense hit is real without Turner and Tyrese.
One indicator to watch: Opponent transition frequency—can they slow leaks?
The worry: Defensive rebounding and half-court creation.
What moves them: Up if the defense hits average; down if track-meets become layup lines.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Traded for Norman Powell; moved Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love; Robinson out via S&T.
Why here: Structure and late-game calm keep them competitive; Powell fits the clutch need.
One indicator to watch: Role-player 3PA volume (not just %).
The worry: Creation load on top options for 82+.
What moves them: Up if a secondary creator pops; down if injuries force overextension.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Jrue Holiday in; Damian Lillard returns but likely 2026-27 timeline; No.16 pick Yang Hansen; Simons, Ayton out.
Why here: Energy is up; Jrue mentors Scoot/Sharpe while the star rehabs.
One indicator to watch: Young guards’ FT rate and turnover control.
The worry: Late-game offense while waiting on Dame.
What moves them: Up if Scoot/Sharpe take efficiency leaps; down if turnovers/fouls stack.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Masai Ujiri out; impending Ingram’s Debut; added Sandro Mamukelashvili.
Why here: Length/switchability most nights; half-court bucket is still the puzzle.
One indicator to watch: Half-court offensive rating vs. league average.
The worry: Spacing collapsing against packed paints.
What moves them: Up if two shooters stick in the rotation; down if turnovers rise from forced drives.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Waived Bradley Beal; traded Kevin Durant; added Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Goodwin, Mark Williams; heavy tax savings.
Why here: Shot-making remains with Booker, but the rest is reset mode.
One indicator to watch: Games played for the top trio and role wings’ 3s.
The worry: Defense/rebounding vs. bigger teams.
What moves them: Up if the new wings defend and hit; down if injuries force tiny lineups.
Trend arrow: ↑ • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Trendon Watford in; depth two-ways; injuries to Paul George (knee) and no Embiid timeline dominate the summer.
Why here: Identity in flux; clarity > headlines this year.
One indicator to watch: Shot profile (more rim/corners, fewer tough middies).
The worry: Late-game offense without a clear pecking order.
What moves them: Up if a new core forms quickly; down if defense slides while roles churn.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: Medium

Offseason note: Added Collin Sexton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Mason Plumlee; traded Jusuf Nurkić, Mark Williams; re-upped Tre Mann.
Why here: There’s scoring; availability and defense must catch up.
One indicator to watch: Opponent rim attempts allowed.
The worry: Fouls/turnovers gifting points.
What moves them: Up if they defend without fouling; down if injuries scramble rotations again.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Flipped Jordan Poole + Saddiq Bey for CJ McCollum’s expiring; added Cam Whitmore; moved Kelly Olynyk later.
Why here: Youth movement with vet guidance and future cap space—patient build.
One indicator to watch: Young wings’ assist rate and usage/efficiency balance.
The worry: Defense bottoming out during experiments.
What moves them: Up if two youngsters pop; down if effort slips on back-to-backs.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Added Dennis Schröder, Dario Šarić; Jonas Valančiūnas out; big, pricey core feels stuck.
Why here: Still score, but playoff counters haven’t stuck; vibes: impatient.
One indicator to watch: Defensive rating vs. top-10 offenses.
The worry: Physical teams push them off spots and crush the glass.
What moves them: Up if defense hits average; down if the rebounding gap stays wide.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Added Saddiq Bey, Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole; lost CJ McCollum, Kelly Olynyk, Bruce Brown; rough draft/health luck.
Why here: When whole, they bully the paint; “when whole” is the catch.
One indicator to watch: Games played by top 4 and paint FG%.
The worry: Spacing balance when stars share.
What moves them: Up if availability + shooting hold; down if injuries scramble roles again.
Trend arrow: → • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: Traded Lonzo Ball for Isaac Okoro; Josh Giddey RFA stalemate drags on.
Why here: Finally tilting younger, trying on a defensive identity.
One indicator to watch: Young guards’ true shooting + assist rate.
The worry: Offense stays mid-range heavy and slow.
What moves them: Up if two prospects pop; down if defense collapses with kids learning.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: High

Offseason note: Added Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love, Jusuf Nurkić; moved Collin Sexton, John Collins, Jordan Clarkson.
Why here: Tools everywhere, cohesion in progress; big reset on the scorers.
One indicator to watch: Opponent rim frequency—can the bigs protect?
The worry: Turnovers/fouls from young guards.
What moves them: Up if a primary creator emerges; down if defense ranks bottom-five.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: Low

Offseason note: NBA-record five first-round picks; added Terance Mann, Michael Porter Jr.; moved Cam Johnson, D’Angelo Russell.
Why here: Full-tilt development year; MPJ spacing helps, but creation is a climb.
One indicator to watch: Assist rate + corner-3 attempts from young wings.
The worry: Nights with no easy buckets.
What moves them: Up if a guard/wing combo forms a real core; down if the defense never finds a base scheme.
Trend arrow: ↓ • Continuity: Low